By Alex Roslin |
Ukrainian servicemen fire a M777 howitzer at Russian positions near Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, on March 17, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Aris Messinis / AFP
Russia may have just achieved a gruesome new claim to fame in its war in Ukraine. Of some 800,000 Russian troops who were part of the initial invasion army or recruited since then for the war, nearly 420,000 (over 52 percent) could now be dead or otherwise out of action due to wounds.
That breaks down as follows:
· 166,570 Russian troops killed.
· 499,700 wounded (including 150,000 still getting medical care and 100,000 permanently disabled).
The figures are based on calculations using data from Ukrainian, independent Russian, and Western sources for combat casualties and the rate at which soldiers typically return to combat after being wounded.
A military unit that has lost over 50 percent of its personnel is commonly seen as needing to be withdrawn from battle because of a loss of combat effectiveness. A 1997 U.S. Army field manual says such a unit is “combat ineffective” and “requires reconstitution before [its] next mission.” Soldiers may still be able to put up a fight, but not effectively as a cohesive military force.
Russia passed critical threshold in mid-March
Russia’s overall ground forces available for the war in Ukraine appear to have surpassed this critical 50-percent threshold in mid-March.
That’s in line with recent reports that Russia’s winter military offensive in eastern Ukraine appears to be starting to peter out.
It’s also consistent with reports about a major failed Russian assault near the southern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar in January and February, which ended after Russian units are said to have lost the better part of two marine brigades that constituted the main attack force.
666,300 total Russian casualties
Ukraine’s military estimates that 166,570 Russian troops have been killed in the full-scale war as of March 21. On top of this, NATO estimates that three Russian troops are wounded for each one killed. This suggests 499,700 Russian wounded, for a total of 666,300 total killed and wounded.
About half of the wounded are likely to have returned to battle after medical treatment, based on calculations derived from historical data from previous wars and reports from the independent Russian site Volya, which estimates Russian war casualties from information it says it gets from Russian security sources.
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