By Paul Ejime
ECOWAS and Fernando Dias da Costa, who claimed victory in Guinea-Bissau’s 23 November 2025 presidential election, have strongly disagreed over a controversial statement credited to Sierra Leone’s Foreign Minister and Chair of the ECOWAS Council of Ministers, Timothy Musa Kabba, on Guinea-Bissau’s leadership crisis.
Also, in a joint statement, a Consultative Forum and the Popular Front, “platforms bringing together more than 50 social and civic organisations in Guinea-Bissau, express their deep indignation and astonishment at the profoundly irresponsible, extremely serious, and utterly unacceptable statements, as they constitute an attack on democratic values, the rule of law, and the principles of constitutional legality that ECOWAS claims to uphold.”
Minister Kabba led a delegation, which included the Foreign and Defence Ministers of Senegal, and the ECOWAS Commission President Omar Alieu Touray, to Bissau last weekend, and later told the media: “We are very pleased…” to be informed by the junta leader that general elections would be held on the 6th of December 2026 in Guinea-Bissau. He also stated that the junta regime had reviewed the constitution and electoral laws, and that a referendum would follow.
But in a swift reaction, da Costa’s Campaign Directorate rejected the minister’s comment and accused ECOWAS of “inconsistency.”
“It is politically unacceptable that a representative of a brotherly state from the sub-region has taken the initiative to announce the holding of a referendum aimed at approving a Constitution promoted by the current transitional authorities – assuming a role that does not belong to him and which constitutes an inadmissible interference in a matter that exclusively concerns the people of Guinea-Bissau,” the Directorate said in its statement, which called da Costa Guinea-Bissau’s President-elect.
The results of the 23 November 2025 presidential election have not been released due to the military coup of 26 November 2025, widely believed to have been orchestrated by former President Umaro Sissoco Embaló to avoid an electoral defeat.
Da Costa’s Campaign Directorate said the Sierra Leone minister’s position “contradicts the (ECOWAS’) democratic principles and previous decisions regarding Guinea-Bissau,” and called on Bissau-Guinean citizens to “remain united, and defend their constitution and democracy,” and “uphold the popular will expressed in the presidential election of 23 November 2025.”
“No foreign representative has the authority to announce or validate constitutional processes, such as a referendum or constitutional reform, on behalf of Guinea-Bissau citizens,” it said, and accused ECOWAS of “not being neutral,” noting that “Guinea-Bissau’s sovereignty is non-negotiable,” and “Only the Guinean people have the right to decide on constitutional changes.”
The statement urged “ECOWAS to act with coherence, impartiality, and fidelity to its founding principles.”
It also called on “the international community to remain vigilant regarding any initiatives that may undermine democratic legality, the sovereignty of Guinea-Bissau and the inalienable right of its people to freely decide their own destiny,” adding: “History shows that the will of a people is never defeated when it remains united in defence of its freedom, dignity and sovereignty.”
Responding to the statement by da Costa’s Campaign Directorate, the ECOWAS Commission said “…the Head of Mission (to Guinea-Bissau) was speaking on behalf of ECOWAS in the discharge of a collective mandate, and not in any national capacity.”
It explained, “…that the Mission was deployed pursuant to the mandate of the Authority of Heads of State and Government and acted exclusively within the framework of the Community’s responsibility to promote peace, constitutional order, political dialogue and regional stability.”
“The Commission further wishes to clarify that the Mission neither announced nor validated any constitutional process on behalf of the people of Guinea-Bissau. It merely communicated the broad outlines of the political road-map discussed with the competent national authorities in the course of its consultations,” the statement said, adding: “Such communication should not be misconstrued as an attempt to determine the constitutional future of Guinea-Bissau, a sovereign decision that belongs exclusively to the institutions and people of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, in accordance with their Constitution and applicable national laws.”
“The Commission calls upon all political stakeholders to exercise restraint, engage in constructive dialogue and contribute to an atmosphere conducive to peace, national cohesion and democratic consolidation. ECOWAS will continue to stand alongside the people of Guinea-Bissau in support of a peaceful, inclusive and nationally owned political process that safeguards the country’s stability and strengthens democratic institutions,” it added.
In their joint statement, the Consultative Forum and the Popular Front said there was “…a profound inconsistency between ECOWAS’ official rhetoric and its actual actions in Guinea-Bissau,” adding: “Such a stance undermines its (ECOWAS’) credibility and reveals a practical inability to prevent and respond to situations that represent a democratic setback and erosion of the rule of law…”
They called on the ECOWAS Conference of Heads of State and Government “to ensure the implementation of its decisions and to maintain consistency between the principles it claims to uphold and its Institutional actions,” and warned against “…any initiative that might jeopardize the restoration of constitutional order and democratic legality and, consequently, legitimize the autocracy of Umaro Sissoco Embaló.”
The group said it would “…hold ECOWAS accountable for all consequences arising from its repeated persistent conduct and complicity with subversive actions by the coup leaders in power in Guinea-Bissau.”
Many analysts have noted that the transition programme being pursued by the Embaló-supported junta regime has little or no input from ECOWAS or other Guinea-Bissau stakeholders, especially the opposition parties and their leaders.
According to diplomatic sources, da Costa is in Bissau without any security protection, having left the Nigerian Embassy, which provided him refuge following the Embaló self-coup.
Domingos Simões Pereira, another prominent opposition leader, barred from participating in the November 2025 election along with his African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), remains under house arrest after being accused by the junta government of involvement in at least two attempted coups in 2023 and 2025. This is despite calls for his release by ECOWAS and the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries.
ECOWAS will set a dangerous precedent by allowing fresh elections with the prospect of Embaló returning to power after a self-coup in a region notorious for tenure elongation and unconstitutional changes of government.
Four of the ECOWAS 15 member States are now under military dictatorship, and three of them have already withdrawn their membership from the regional bloc, under the name of the Alliance of Sahel States, AES.
Guinea-Bissau’s leadership crisis has become an existential litmus test for ECOWAS to redeem what is left of its past glory
Ejime is a Global Affairs Analyst and Consultant on Peace & Security and Governance Communication