Activist Martin K. N. Kollie writes
Pres. GMW has lost control of Montserrado County altogether. Ahead of 2023, CDC does not have any viable political stronghold in terms of numerical strength. The lifespan of CDC is most likely to end 26 months from now. As a result of this legitimate distress and looming demise, CDC is wooing Nimba County but will Nimba fall prey to such enticement ahead of 2023? Will Nimba become the next stronghold of the CDC? My satellite picked up Samuel Tweah, Nathaniel McGill, Jeff Koijee, and Musa Dean in Ganta, Nimba.
A big but private meeting was held at night in Nimba County. The details are below:
Venue: Jackie Guest House
Date: August 1, 2021
A few local county officials, influential youths, prominent citizens, and eminent elders including chiefs were present at this meeting as Tweah, McGill, Koijee, and Dean moderated.
Warlea Sawah Dunnah, Mantenikay Tingban, Marcus Dahn, Floyld Tomah, Jeremiah Koung, etc. were also present. Weah wants vote-rich Nimba as his new stronghold since he is now convinced that CDC has totally lost Montserrado. Furthermore, CDC is not too sure of Prince Johnson being around by 2023 because Johnson might likely be behind bars for committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. Besides, Johnson is unpredictable. His support is largely driven/influenced by cash.
So, what is their (CDC) next strategy? Since last month, they’ve been frequently visiting Nimba in a futile effort to engage/entice prominent stakeholders. They want to use Warlea Sawah Dunnah, Mantenikay Tingban, Michael Slawon, Marcus Dahn, and Floyd Tomah as frontline influencers or mobilizers for CDC ahead of 2023.
CDC gave Floyd Tomah 600 pieces of street lights for Ganta and those lights are currently in Tomah’s possession.
Warlea Sawah Dunnah, Mantenikay Tingban, Marcus Dahn and eight other prominent Nimbaians are about to be appointed in government by President George Weah. Furthermore, GMW will begin to appoint a lot of other Nimbaians soon. Watch and see.
This agreement was reached: Warlea Sawah Dunah (Deputy Minister of Justice), Mantenikay Tingban (Minister Proper of Internal Affairs), Michael Slawon (Deputy Minister of Education), and other Nimbaians will be appointed as Assistant Ministers and Directors at Public Works, FDA, MOA, and LIS.
Floyd Tomah have been asked to recommend over 75 business executives or firms basing in Nimba for zero-interest loan and tax waiver for a period of 4 years. Floyd was very hesitant in this regard because he believes that Joseph Boakai can make a better president in 2023 according to my firsthand source who was also in this meeting.
They also rolled out a cunning strategy to target various opposition chairpersons, youth league chairpersons, and women wing chairpersons through cash violence. A lot of opposition party executives in Nimba are likely to resign and pledge their support to CDC between now and December 2021.
The Superintendent of Nimba will strategically be used to pressurize and/or coerce local chiefs to form various pro-CDC movements for Weah’s re-election in 2023 between now and December 2021.
Jeremiah Koung was tasked to visit Bahn and other major Districts in Nimba to assure citizens of the West Africa Power Pool Project (electricity).
CDC will launch a temporary job scheme in 6 populated cities of Nimba between now and 2023.
CDC’s main target is to get Floyd Tomah on board because he is a major influencer in Nimba but Floyd remains hesitant to date.
Opposition Political Parties have a far better chance to win George Weah in round one but they have to be SMART, strategic, and sincere. They need to focus on mass education, mobilization, recruitment, and membership between now and the whole of 2022. The Opposition is already in full control of vote-rich Montserrado but Nimba is a political hotbed too. It must not be forgotten. Leave no stone unturned.
Liberia has a voting population of 2.1 million as at 2017 general and presidential election. Out of this number, Montserrado has 777,503 while Nimba has 279,572. This is what makes Nimba vote-rich. Now, let me quickly do a realistic outcome of 2023 based on data and current variables.
The Opposition will win Montserrado (777,503 votes), Lofa (167,555), Gbarpolu (48,669), Grand Cape Mount (65,800), Maryland (57,344), River Gee (35,240), and Grand Bassa (145,798).
There will be a big fight for Bong County (208,150) depending if Jewel Howard-Taylor goes as running mate to Weah which seems rare or almost impossible due to ongoing impasse. There will be a fight in Nimba (279,572) as well if Prince Johnson is not around. If the opposition begins to do a lot of work right now in Nimba, there will still be a fight even if Johnson is around.
The opposition has an edge in Margibi (158,150). Weah will win Grand Gedeh (63,495 votes) and Grand Kru (35,506). There is no question about this. Sinoe (47,952) and Rivercess (35,000) seem more sympathetic towards the opposition judging for the recent senatorial elections that were held in both counties. Bomi (61,171) seems neither for the ruling party nor for the opposition. There are a lot of undecided voters in Bomi. The opposition needs to move in.
What must the opposition do going forward?
The first priority is: Do not leave any stone unturned. But focus more on Nimba, Bong, and Margibi. The swing votes are in these 3 counties. These 3 counties are the major influencers and they will largely determine the outcome of 2023.
Like Abe Dillon, the opposition will certainly ride on the mass failures of Pres. GMW. Ahead of 2023, more people, including CDCians, will get disenchanted as a result of the prevailing objective factors (e.g. extreme hardship, high unemployment, mysterious deaths / secret killings, corruption, zero foreign direct investment, no pay for civil servants, cut in wages, high prices, hike in tuition, no justice, abuse of power, etc. And this will be a huge loss to CDC.
Are you aware that for Weah to have become President, 62% of his total votes came from Montserrado? But this time around, Weah has lost control of Montserrado altogether. This is a big loss for CDC and it may cost them their end. Weah’s only hope right now is Nimba. Will Nimba fall prey in 2023? Only a strong and united opposition can make Weah’s political dream a dead one.
Some of us fled Liberia due to Weah’s dictatorship. We want to return but we cannot when the security of Liberia is still in the hands of CDC. We want to come back home and serve most preferably in the private sector. We are not interested in any public post. Weah is in our way. Weah is in the people’s way as well. So, we will do everything to get him out. Weah is not only unfit, but he’s also clueless and corrupt. Our people deserve a patriotic and nationalistic leadership.
Like I said last week, the CPP has become a normal political good (YED>0) while the CDC has become an inferior political good (YED<0). The political elasticity of demand for CPP during the December 2020 Senatorial Election was greater than 0 and it is still greater than 0. This means that the masses are demanding for CPP more while the demand for CDC has fallen below 0.
GMW is the worst our country has ever seen and may ever see since 1847. The opposition just needs to be SMART, strategic, and sincere about where they want to take Liberia in the best interest of the people. The opposition must demonstrate that it is different from CDC and that its utmost goal is to rescue Liberia and Liberians from the malaise that is currently prevalent.
About The Author: Martin K. N. Kollie is an exiled activist