Coronavirus death toll in US projected to double as restrictions ease, key model predicts

By Stephen Sorace | Fox News |

HHS Sec. Azar disavows leaked COVID report: We rely on scientific evidence, not draft models

A revised mortality model predicts coronavirus deaths in the U.S. will nearly double to 135,000 through August as states continue to ease social distancing restrictions.

The grim new projection, released by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) Monday, which has helped influence the U.S. response to the coronavirus outbreak, has jumped up considerably from its April 29 forecast of 72,433 deaths.

As of Tuesday, the coronavirus has infected nearly 1.2 million people in the U.S., killing 68,934.

The considerably higher projection reflects “changes in mobility and social distancing policies,” the institute said. As a growing number of states begin to roll out plans to reopen, the institute is estimating longer epidemic peaks and slower downward trajectories in the U.S.

The institute’s revised model comes as the daily death toll across the U.S. dropped for the fifth day in a row for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic erupted earlier this year. The 1,240 new deaths Monday marked just the third time the daily death toll was under 1,300 over the past month.

However, the new projection coincides with an internal Trump administration forecast obtained by The New York Times that predicts the daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1. It also projects there will be 200,000 new coronavirus cases every day. This is a significant jump from current numbers of roughly 25,000 new cases and 1,750 deaths each day.

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About Cholo Brooks 12089 Articles
Joel Cholo Brooks is a Liberian journalist who previously worked for several international news outlets including the BBC African Service. He is the CEO of the Global News Network which publishes two local weeklies, The Star and The GNN-Liberia Newspapers. He is a member of the Press Union Of Liberia (PUL) since 1986, and several other international organizations of journalists, and is currently contributing to the South Africa Broadcasting Corporation as Liberia Correspondent.